Cap Rates by Metro, Q2 2026
Compression has stalled in primary luxury markets; secondary coastal metros show 40–80 bps of expansion year-over-year.
Original research for principals who treat residential real estate as a portfolio asset, not just a lifestyle choice. Briefs are released quarterly; one-page notes between cycles.
Compression has stalled in primary luxury markets; secondary coastal metros show 40–80 bps of expansion year-over-year.
Structuring like-kind exchanges for high-basis trophy assets without breaking step-up planning.
Aged-on-market days at the top end have quietly become our most reliable leading indicator. The signal is now flashing in three of seven markets.
Portal-driven discovery favors volume metros. Above $10M, the trades that matter rarely surface publicly until they're under contract.
Direct-frontage trophies are pricing 90–140 bps inside their second-row peers. We map the spread across six coastal metros.
Regulatory tightening in three resort markets has compressed STR yields by 60–110 bps. Where the math still works.
QOF deferral remains underused at the top end. We outline a residential overlay that pairs cleanly with 1031 strategy.
Texas and Tennessee remain the dominant relocations, with Wyoming quietly compounding. The audit triggers to avoid.
Top-end absorption typically lags rate cuts by two quarters. We're now inside that window for the second half of 2026.
Euro-denominated buyers have re-emerged in three primary markets, with FX tailwinds doing meaningful work.
Three years of double-digit appreciation in Phoenix and Austin is reverting. The pricing implications for $5M+ inventory.
When does a sealed process actually maximize price? Eight years of internal data suggests a narrower answer than most expect.
Sponsor units carry hidden flexibility most buyers never see. The five concessions worth pursuing before price.
A simple one-page document that sharpens search outcomes and shortens time-to-contract by roughly 35%.
Concise PDFs prepared for principals and family offices. Distribute internally; do not publish.
Cap-rate, IRR, and hold-period sketches for any residence on Carrolander — public or private. Available to advisory clients in Phase 3.
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